as investors EU summit last weekend, doubts about the validity of the results, coupled with rating agencies downgrade warning followed, the dollar index rose this week, the first three consecutive trading days, a record year in a new high, while also a crucial point in a firm of 80.
contrast, had been three quarters of 2011 as the global financial market “funds safe haven” of gold prices are retired: This week all the way down the international price of gold, Crack $ 1,700 and $ 1,600 two integer level.
Currently, the dollar has replaced gold as hedge funds preferred. On the one hand is an international gold prices this year, the inevitable consequences; the other hand, the United States better than Europe’s economic fundamentals are closely related.
poor prospects for Europe
three consecutive trading days, the three major bad debt crisis in Europe, say current global debt crisis in financial markets followed the lead of the European CD not nonsense. European debt crisis of the latest plot: an EU summit last week to hand over the answer sheet by the market sub-sub is not high, so the rating agencies issued a 12-round cut euro zone economies sovereign debt credit rating of “serious warning”; 14 Italian five-year bond yields hit 6.72% in the euro since the birth of a new high, the rating agencies not only stand as evidence, leaving it to the “too big to not save,” the Italian bond market prospects worry on my mind.
U.S. dollar index is a measure of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and Swedish krona major currencies of six major global data. In the index tracked a basket of currencies, the euro debt crisis in Europe is undoubtedly the greatest impact object; the Swiss franc and Swedish krona, although motivated by a weak euro, but its influence is limited. Coupled with the implementation of the United Kingdom and Japan for loose monetary policy is the formation of pressure against the pound and the yen, the dollar index has continued to soar into the November becomes a matter of course.
U.S. media that the U.S. dollar index tracked four of the six currencies with the euro area geographically there is a direct and indirect contact, the overall economic situation is similar. Therefore, under the investors will no doubt scare away European economies choice of monetary assets.
U.S. economic fundamentals are relatively optimistic about the
and across the Atlantic, the U.S. economy has recently made a significant rebound in U.S. to regain the favor of investors. Data show that although in the third quarter U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth year on year last month was revised down to 2.5%, but still significantly higher than the first two quarters of 0.4% and 1%.
More importantly, the United States from the current global financial crisis, continuing high unemployment rate since the data was dropped in November to 8.6%, core inflation is also expected to decline. This means that the shoulder “full employment” and “price stability” two responsibilities of the Federal Reserve, probably will not be launched in September this year, the “reverse operation” has been criticized and restart the quantitative easing measures; and U.S. medium-term prospects for investors Therefore, most of the biggest worries will disappear.
However, despite the U.S. economic fundamentals are good, but there are still repeated. Released on Tuesday, November retail sales data will be poor performance: While the data show a 0.2% sequential growth, but growth is not expected and 0.4% of the value.
Professor Bo Ruobai
??Central University of Finance pointed out that the recent dollar strength is not completely continuous warming trend caused by the U.S. economy, which more reflects the United States before the debt crisis brought Europe out of the economic fundamentals of comparative advantage.
price of gold fell below “1,600″ explore a new base
the fourth quarter, the global economy out of recession in full, the international price of gold is not only an occasion to break through $ 1,032 an ounce of pre-crisis highs, and even hit $ 1,400 level; and 2011, with the Middle East geopolitical crisis, Japan earthquake and the bad debt crisis in Europe and continuous “bombing” the market, gold’s safe-haven assets were greatly excited, soaring break even “thousand nine” the horizon, only a stone’s throw away from the $ 2,000 mark.
And now, repeated in the European debt market, “harassment” and the world’s largest economy in the context of accelerated growth, gold has become the “forgotten corner”, the price is accompanied by a surge in the dollar index continued to fall. On the first three days this week, the same as the financial markets have “safe haven” of the international price of gold and the dollar index has revealed a significant negative correlation.
this, the Western media emphasis, after 2011, growth in the weak U.S. economy and the debt crisis of the U.S. federal government is expected deep background, hedge funds investors, almost all concentrated in the gold market, the international price of gold significantly from the fundamentals and the formation of price bubbles, which is favored by its current investors, the most difficult to be the root cause. At present, the international price of gold has fallen below the important $ 1,630 an ounce the previous stage, “the bottom”, which is its return to the true value of the important nodes.
In addition, the global central banks and commercial banks are subject to large amounts of cash for settlement, the U.S. dollar loan in exchange for gold swaps; This is the moment the gold market can not absorb large quantities of gold supply, thus resulting in the international price of gold fell, gold parts loss of hedging, an important factor.
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